Planning for Growth: Setting 2025 Targets and 2026 Beverage Budgets

Written By Nick Bodkins

Why Planning is a Growth Lever—Not a Limitation

Most beverage founders treat budgeting like tax season—something to avoid until absolutely necessary. But a strong plan isn’t a constraint. It’s freedom.

When you set clear goals and build a real budget, you’re not just managing money. You’re shaping your company’s direction. You’re deciding what matters. And, more importantly, what doesn’t.

In fast-changing categories like non-alcoholic and low-alcohol beverages, planning isn’t about forecasting to the penny. It’s about modeling scenarios, tracking inputs, and knowing when to pivot.

At A Route West, we help beverage brands build flexible, realistic plans that link product, marketing, sales, and supply chain into one story. Here’s how we do it—and how you can use 2025 planning to unlock serious momentum by 2026.

Step 1: Start With Channel-Level Revenue Targets

Start by breaking revenue down across your channels. Don’t guess—use actuals if you have them. If you’re pre-launch, use benchmarked assumptions from similar brands (we have these).

Typical channels:

  • DTC (Shopify, subscriptions)

  • Wholesale (distributors, retailers)

  • Amazon

  • Faire and other marketplaces

  • Events / pop-ups / IRL sales

Make each its own line. Then ask:

  • What’s our goal for each?

  • What resources are needed to hit that?

  • What’s the likely margin on that revenue?

A sample breakout:

  • DTC: $600,000

  • Wholesale: $800,000

  • Amazon: $200,000

  • Faire: $150,000

  • Events: $50,000

  • Total Revenue Goal: $1.8M

We often recommend starting with two models:

  • Baseline: Conservative growth based on current capacity

  • Stretch: Ambitious but achievable if key investments hit

This gives you room to plan spending and hiring without betting the whole business on best-case scenarios.

Step 2: Layer in CAC, COGS, and Gross Margin

A revenue target without a margin plan is just a dream.

For each channel, model:

  • COGS (cost of goods sold—raw materials, packaging, freight-in)

  • CAC (customer acquisition cost—DTC + Amazon especially)

  • Discounting & promotions

  • Fulfillment & shipping

  • Platform fees (Amazon, Faire, Stripe)

From that, calculate gross margin per channel.

Example (DTC):

  • AOV: $55

  • COGS: $17

  • Fulfillment: $6

  • CAC: $19

  • Gross Profit per Order: $13

  • Gross Margin: 24%

That’s tight. Can you improve packaging costs? Increase AOV? Reduce CAC through retention?

We do this analysis with brands line-by-line to identify the real levers they can pull.

Step 3: Match Budget to Business Objectives

Once you have targets and margins, build your spend plan to match. This is where founders usually underinvest—or overhire too early.

Split your budget across:

  • Marketing

    • Paid media (Meta, Google, TikTok)

    • Email/SMS

    • Creative production

    • Influencer / ambassador

  • Sales

    • Trade shows

    • Sampling programs

    • Ambassador or broker fees

  • Ops & Fulfillment

    • 3PL

    • Packaging

    • Inventory purchases

  • R&D or New Products

    • Flavor development

    • Label design

    • Regulatory/compliance

  • People

    • Contractors

    • Full-time hires

    • Agencies or consultants

If revenue is $1.8M and your blended gross margin is 45%, that gives you $810K to work with. How much of that do you want to reinvest?

Some brands target break-even in Year 1. Others plan to operate at a controlled burn.

Whatever your goal—map spend to it. Budget is strategy in numbers.

Step 4: Plan for Seasonality

Beverage is a seasonal category—especially non-alc, which often peaks in:

  • Dry January

  • Summer wellness months

  • Holiday gifting & New Year

Your plan should reflect this:

  • Ramp production in Q4 for January spikes

  • Increase DTC ad spend in December

  • Launch new SKUs in April/May or August

Monthly revenue and spend should follow a seasonal pattern—not be flat. We build month-by-month forecast models so clients can match cash flow to product demand.

Step 5: Build a Real Cash Flow Plan

Don’t confuse P&L with cash flow. Here’s why it matters:

  • You might be profitable on paper but broke due to inventory purchases.

  • Your biggest cash outlays (COGS, freight) often hit before sales.

  • Payment terms vary wildly: Faire might pay in days, distributors in 90+.

We help founders build cash flow forecasts that show:

  • When to place inventory orders

  • When to fundraise or borrow

  • When to hire (or hold off)

For example: you may need $125K in cash in September for Q4 inventory—even if Q3 looks profitable on paper. Plan now or scramble later.

Step 6: Set Team and Performance Goals That Tie to the Budget

Planning isn’t just financial—it’s operational.

For each department or key function, set:

  • Output goals (e.g. 50 new Faire accounts)

  • Efficiency targets (e.g. keep CAC under $25)

  • Milestones (e.g. ambassador program live by March)

Then build those into monthly check-ins. You’ll track:

  • Revenue vs. plan

  • Spend vs. budget

  • Performance vs. KPIs

Brands that review plans monthly tend to grow 2–3x faster than those who don’t. Not because the plan is perfect—but because they actually use it.

What Tools Should You Use?

We build our clients’ plans in shared tools like:

  • Google Sheets for financial model templates

  • Notion or ClickUp for deliverables and timelines

  • Klaviyo/Meta/Shopify dashboards for performance tracking

Your stack doesn’t need to be complex. It needs to be reviewed.

Founder Planning Pitfalls to Avoid

  1. “We’ll figure it out as we go.” No you won’t—not under pressure.

  2. Over-reliance on top-line growth. Revenue means nothing without margin.

  3. No scenario planning. Always model at least 2–3 outcomes.

  4. Ignoring channel differences. DTC and Wholesale perform differently.

  5. Planning for perfection. Your plan will be wrong. That’s fine. What matters is the process.

Why You Should Start Now (Even if It’s June)

Planning isn’t a Q4 activity. If you're selling in 2025, you should:

  • Have a live 2025 forecast

  • Be building Q4 inventory now

  • Be testing ads and platforms for 2026 planning

We help clients reset their plans mid-year with a 90-minute audit, then turn that into a usable framework to guide hiring, budgeting, and channel bets.

What A Route West Offers

We help emerging beverage brands:

  • Set channel-specific revenue and margin goals

  • Build 12-month and 18-month financial models

  • Create cash flow planning tools

  • Set hiring plans and marketing budgets tied to growth

  • Run scenario planning for fundraising or expansion

We also work with founders to present this plan to boards, investors, and banks—so it’s not just a spreadsheet. It’s a growth story.

Want Help? Here’s What to Do.

Book a Planning Session with A Route West. We’ll:

  • Review your current numbers (or build from scratch)

  • Show where your margins or assumptions are weak

  • Help prioritize spend for growth, not waste

  • Deliver a 12-month template tailored to your business

Nick Bodkins
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